Wishful thinking, defined as the tendency to over-estimate the probability of high-payoff outcomes, is a widely-documented phenomenon that can affect decision-making across numerous domains, including finance, management, and entrepreneurship. We design an experiment to distinguish and test the ...
A common approach is to defineoverconfidenceas the overestimation of one’s ability, performance, chance of success, or level of control (Moore & Healy, 2008). There are prominent, robust examples of the human tendency to overestimate. For example, students overestimate how well they will perform...
1997; Camerer & Lovallo,1999) begs consideration of the possibility that positive and negative family events have opposite effects on new ventures. Entrepreneurs’ overconfidence is a double-edged sword. It makes for their perseverance in the face of doubt as well as any...
Mathematical modelling of the anchoring effect on the underconfidence biasThe anchoring effect is defined as the tendency of human thought to the fixation on certain pieces of information that affect decision-making. In the same context,... G Macbeth,NCD Kohan,E Razumiejczyk 被引量: 3发表: ...
. The departure of the self from objective reality fits well with the notion of overconfidence in which people depart from objective judgement. However, while overconfidence seems to be an overall characteristics of humans, narcissism extends this notion by drawing on the individual tendency to ...
Each investor is given common asset holdings at the start of the term with no limit placed on debit and credit transactions. 2.2. Modeling Investor Behavior Investors in the market calculate transaction prices based on their own forecast for market tendency, taking into account both risk and ...
Overconfidence is a kind of cognition bias, which is the tendency of individuals to overestimate their ability, judgment, or prospects for successful life outcomes (Biais et al., 2005). As the company's core decision-making body, the board of directors must implement a voting mechanism in majo...
Finally, ethnic or racial minorities and female participants exhibited a greater tendency to wear masks and use hand sanitizer. Effect sizes for all models illustrate a significant increase, compared to the nested models. In fact, the moderately strong effect sizes in models (2) and (4) ...
This shows that A-REITs have the tendency to acquire more properties as CEOs accumulate more shares in their own companies. This may be explained by the fact that overconfident CEOs have a more optimistic corporate investment strategy that is reflected through, amongst other things, more aggressive...
as the latter often includes not only a heightened sense of one's abilities, but also the notion that one is superior to others and therefore not subject to the same set of rules as others [6]). Overconfidence is defined as "the subjects' mean confidence estimate, minus their mean accurac...