Since the first oil shock in 1973 oil prices began to increase drastically. The 1973 and 1979 oil price shocks can be explained by supply reasons, but since the 80's, oil prices came under another type of increasing pressure. We argue that this latter with the exception of first Gulf War...
Empirical results show an immediate and significant negative real stock returns to oil price shock in Nigeria. The Granger causality test indicates thatcausation run from oil price shocks to stock returns, implying thatvariation in stock market is explainedby oil price volatility. It is also ...
My personal guess as to why the model does not do well over the last 5 years is that quantitative easing caused financial bubbles that inflated the price of oil from 2009-2013 and that currently those bubbles are deflating so that the model will overestimate the price of oil for a couple ...
and China. The Sadorsky's VAR model is extended by incorporating world oil production and world economic activity index to check the main reason for oil price movements. From empirical analysis, I find that global demand shock has a statistically significant positive effect on real stock returns ...
Empirical Research on the Interaction Between Oil Price Shock and World Economic Activity Although the research on the relation between oil price shock and economic growth have emerged in a large amount since the 1970s, there has been little emp... N Hou,Z Qi - International Conference on Wire...
Then the crude oil price can be explained as the composite of a long term trend, effect of a shock from significant events, and short term fluctuations caused by normal Acknowledgements This work is supported by the NSFC, CAS and RGC of Hong Kong. The authors would like to thank the two...
Augmenting the forecasting model with GPR can improve the accuracy of oil price forecasts (Liu et al., 2019). Political risks in OPEC countries also significantly influence oil prices, particularly in Middle Eastern countries endowed with ample oil reserves yet plagued by recurrent armed conflicts (...
Oil Price Shock and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria Nigeria is a mono-product economy, where the main export commodity is crude oil, changes in oil prices has implications for the Nigerian economy and, in particular, exchange rate movements. The latter is mostly important due to the doubl....
In this study, we analyze the time-frequency connectedness between the recent COVID-19 outbreak, crude oil price volatility shock, the economic policy uncertainty, the geopolitical risk and the stock market in the US using the continuous wavelet transform, the wavelet coherence and the wavelet-...
We show that the ability of oil price changes to predict stock returns is limited to periods of extreme geopolitical unrest. Four events generate most of the predictability: the 1973 Arab-Israel war, the 1986 OPEC collapse, the 1990/91 Persian gulf war, and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. We ...