8.A CGE Analysis of the Impact of Oil Price Rise;石油价格上涨对中国经济的冲击——可计算一般均衡模型分析 9.Research on the Dynamic Changing Relationship between Oil Price Fluctuation and Economic Growth Based on the Decomposition of Oil Price Shock基于油价冲击分解的石油价格波动与经济增长的动态变化关...
Empirical results show an immediate and significant negative real stock returns to oil price shock in Nigeria. The Granger causality test indicates thatcausation run from oil price shocks to stock returns, implying thatvariation in stock market is explainedby oil price volatility. It is also ...
My personal guess as to why the model does not do well over the last 5 years is that quantitative easing caused financial bubbles that inflated the price of oil from 2009-2013 and that currently those bubbles are deflating so that the model will overestimate the price of oil for a couple ...
and China. The Sadorsky's VAR model is extended by incorporating world oil production and world economic activity index to check the main reason for oil price movements. From empirical analysis, I find that global demand shock has a statistically significant positive effect on real stock returns ...
In this study, we analyze the time-frequency connectedness between the recent COVID-19 outbreak, crude oil price volatility shock, the economic policy uncertainty, the geopolitical risk and the stock market in the US using the continuous wavelet transform, the wavelet coherence and the wavelet-...
The second oil price shock in 1979 led to global recession and imposed even more hardship on the prosperity of developing countries as the price for their oil imports rose and the price for their other export products fell. By 1985 Third World Debt exceeded $1 trillion dollars. The problem ...
In this paper, we assess the impact and repercussions of oil price fluctuations on the UK economy. We use an empirical strategy which allows us to decompose oil price changes from the underlying source of the shock. Our results show that the consequences of oil price changes on UK macroeconomi...
Augmenting the forecasting model with GPR can improve the accuracy of oil price forecasts (Liu et al., 2019). Political risks in OPEC countries also significantly influence oil prices, particularly in Middle Eastern countries endowed with ample oil reserves yet plagued by recurrent armed conflicts (...
According to some authors, a tightening of monetary policy following an oil price shock has a much more severe impact than the direct effects of the oil price shock themselves. However, empirical evidence on this matter is ambiguous. Current simulations for the euro area, the U.S.A. and ...
In the literature on the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, the VAR approach is popular because it is suitable to capture the dynamic and interdependent relationships between macroeconomic variables. A straightforward, and often used, way to analyze the effects of an oil price shock is to...