oilpriceshocksconsequencescausescrude 0 OilPriceShocks:CausesandConsequencesLutzKilianUniversityofMichiganandCEPRResearchonoilmarketsconductedduringthelastdecadehaschallengedlong-heldbeliefsaboutthecausesandconsequencesofoilpriceshocks.Astheempiricalandtheoreticalmodelsusedbyeconomistshaveevolved,sohasourunderstandingofthedetermin...
Our understanding of the sources of oil price fluctuations and their effects on the U.S. economy has undergone important transformations in the last decades. First, several studies have demonstrated the importance of identifying the causes of oil price fluctuations, whether they are driven by demand...
Thus, the full sample is split into two sub-periods: 1996M2-2006M12 and 2007M1-2015M10. We reveal that, in the two sub-periods, the responses of stock return to oil shocks are different and crucially related to the causes of oil price changes, while the responses of stock volatility to...
The latter shock is designed to capture shifts in the price of oil driven by higher precautionary demand associated with concerns about the availability of future oil supplies. The paper estimates the dynamic effects of these shocks on the real price of oil. A historical decomposition sheds ...
In this paper, the effect of an oil price shock upon the business cycle is revisited. Not long time ago, many researchers maintained that volatility in output growth have reached an end, and that economic stability would be something characteristic of modern societies. However, 2008 economic down...
price regimes that are associated with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries gaining control over the marginal supply of crude oil, US energy legislation, a precautionary demand shock, the Arab Spring and speculative bubbles. These bubbles raised real oil prices by US$14.31 and US$...
On the dynamic effects of oil price shock: a study using industry level data.:This paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on demand and supply in various industries. The impulse responses of identified VAR models indicate that for industries that have a large cost share of oil, such...
The large OPEC-engineered real world oil price increases of the early and late 1970?s have set in train, via a highly integrated international trade and finance system, significant resource transfers from energy-poor to energy-rich countries. In accommodating these resource transfers both energy exp...
Norton, P.W.: Regulation, the OPEC oil supply shock, and wealth effects for electric utilities. Econ. Inq. 26, 223-238 (1988)Norton, S. W. (1988). Regulation, The OPEC Oil Supply Shock, and Wealth Effects for Electric Utilities. Economic Inquiry, 223-238....
Numerous studies have shown that the shock of oil price uncertainty (OPU) leads to economic recession and influences China's macroeconomic activities as well as macroeconomic policies (Tang, Wu, & Zhang, 2010; Xu, Fu, & Wang, 2022). Additionally, OPU also affects microeconomic activities, for...