International oil prices affect the development of many areas of the world economy, where most predictions of macroeconomic variables depend on the changes in oil prices. The high volatility of oil prices is a cause of prediction complexity, especially in times of crisis or during the curren...
17.The Application Research of Petroleum Futures Prices Forecasting Based on Association Rules关联规则及其在石油期货价格预测中的应用研究 18.Study on early warning mechanism on oil import price to our country;我国石油进口价格风险预警机制研究 相关短句/例句 oil-gas evaluation and prediction油气评价及预测 ...
The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oil States' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier). ...
In the same year, Martens and Zein [16] extended the results to the financial and oil markets about the volatility prediction analysis. However, in 2009 Agnolucci [15] concluded GARCH models hold better prediction accuracy than implied volatility models in the crude oil future market. With the...
Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean-squared prediction error sense than no-change forecasts. This result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price, as captured by the oil ...
One way to speculate on oil prices is through trading in oil futures. Key Takeaways Abundant and proven, oil will most likely remain the most popular energy source on Earth for some time into the future; one way to speculate on oil prices is through trading in oil futures. ...
Oilpricepredictionisextremelyhardduetoitsintrinsicdifficulty - Nearly2/3worldenergyconsumptioncomesfromcrudeoilandnaturalgastheworld’slargesttradedcommodity,$500billion/yearSharpoilpricemovementsarelikelytodisturbaggregateeconomicactivity CrudeoilistradeinternationallyamongmanydifferenttypesofplayersBasicallydeterminedbyits...
We find that changes in oil spot prices predict approximately 20% of industry returns, while changes in oil futures prices have very weak prediction power.3 A delayed reaction of two trading weeks, or between six and ten trading days, is detectable in the data, which confirms the findings ...
Based on the cointegration relationship, we construct VECM model to forecast bunker prices. In addition, we also consider ARMA, ARMAX, and VAR models for certifying whether considering the long-run equilibrium between bunker and oil future prices is helpful in prediction. One-step-ahead and four...
More importantly, the out-of-sample forecasts of the model accurately mimic the observed oil prices even during periods of high instabilities. Figure 10 shows how the ARIMA(1,1,0)-ARCH(1) model predicts future prices with high accuracy. Including the PLS components does not provide a good ...