Although NFL game outcomes are far from random, teams still get lucky. We identified four key scenarios where teams benefit from actions in a game that are almost entirely derived from opponent performance or lucky bounces. Dropped Interception (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops an int...
A copula function is one that maps marginal distributions to a multivariate distribution for continuous random variables. In our case, \(G\left(E,w\right)=C\left({F}_{E}\left(E\right),{F}_{w}\left(w\right)\right)\), where FE and Fw are the distribution functions for E and w ...
NFL Penalty Stats Tracker - A complete log of all NFL Penalties since 2009. Statistics browsable by Year, Week, Team, Player, or Game.
Let’s start by posing a simple question: How do you model random chance into a particular outcome or process? What do we mean by random chance? In sports, for example, sometimes, even when a player is ‘supposed’ to win, they don’t. Like the famous ‘Helmet Catch,’ a player pul...
This is more gut feel than anything but as random as interceptions are, 14 for Bland over his first two seasons in the league certainly tells us something about his ability as a ball hawk. I say he grabs one in Week 18. -- Walder What's at stake: The Commanders have a 73% chance...
This is more gut feel than anything but as random as interceptions are, 14 for Bland over his first two seasons in the league certainly tells us something about his ability as a ball hawk. I say he grabs one in Week 18. -- Walder What's at stake: The Commanders have a 73% chance...
Bettors often dispute the validity of betting trends, especially as it pertains to short-term results or limited sample sizes. However, long-term betting trends can hint at possible patterns worth following, especially if those trends have a narrative explaining the results rather than random occurre...
Advanced team stats Offensive player season leaders Defender season leaders QB Viz RB Viz The Eagles lost to the 49ers on Sunday 26-21 in what essentially came down to two plays by the Eagles on 3rd and 4th-and-Goal from just outside the 1-yard line. There is no denying it was a clo...
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But getting back to this past regular season, Next Gen Stats provides three fascinating notes that help provide valuable context for how this Detroit offense operated. First, the Lions featured the top two players in the entire league when it came to shifts/motions, with LaPorta ...