October:49.8% November:49.5% December:45.7% January:50.6% It would seem that sportsbooks are overreacting to the unknown. The point spreads have been too high (thus the strong ATS cover rate for underdogs) and the totals have been lowered too far. Use these trends and the be...
In the wake of five players being suspended in April, the NFL is investigating asecond waveof potential violations of its gambling policy, multiple sources told ESPN. The uptick in gambling-related issues comes five years after a landmark ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court. On May 14, 2018...
Los Angeles Times NFL writerSam Farmerexamines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 12-4 (.750); season 189-83 (.695). Using point spreads with thescores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have be...
The Times’ NFL writer,Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 9-7 (.563); regular season 162-110 (.596). Using point spreads with thescores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week woul...
We kept our head above water doing bonus picks a week ago, with point spreads playing a key role in flipping several outcomes one way or the other. I’m glad not to be a gambler because I can imagine having a half point ruin your day could be rather frustrating. At any rate, I ext...
Use Vegas Point Spreads –It would be silly to not at least take a look at the NFL betting lines for the games. The books are straight up telling you who they think the better team is. You are going to last a lot longer in this thing picking teams who are -7 or more than trying...
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Fun fact: If you want to compare Elo’s predictions with point spreads like the Vegas line, you can also divide EloDiff by 25 to get the spread for the game. Just be sure to include all of the many adjustments above to get the most accurate predicted line. Once the game is over, ...
asimple systemthat estimates each team’s skill level using only the final scores and locations of each game. As we’ve done in the past few years, we’re using those Elo ratings to calculateNFL predictionsthat include win probabilities and point spreads for every game in this season’s NFL...
Willie McGinest's three-point plan for Bucs to upset Saints Wyche reveals the 'big question' facing Brandon Staley with Chargers Wyche: Goff-McVay relationship 'not great' in L.A. right now Where and when to watch AFC, NFC Championship Games Wyche, Siciliano, Silver share their favor...