In recent years, the British polling industry has encountered difficulties in its attempts to measure voting intentions in important popular consultations, notably the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, the 2015 UK general election, and the 2016 EU membership referendum. In such a context, it ...
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First off, some free British “election predictions” advice. Don’t make any. Until after people walk into a polling station, or mail in that postal vote, no one actually knows what the result will be. Ask poor old Theresa May who the day after she called a snap vote i...
The fallibility of American opinion polls further adds to the uncertainty. The polls and the data mining aggregators who work from them, such as Nate Silver's 538.com, had another bad night this week. John Della Volpe, the head of polling at the Kennedy School at Harvard University...
Unfortunately for them that is not what polling in either Somerton or Selby points to. By-elections bring additional media attention and voters tend to punish parties if their MP has been forced out in disgrace or bothered them by called an election unnecessarily. ...
As the General Election campaign gets underway, the governing Conservative Party has a comfortable poll lead of around nine points according to the latest BBC ‘poll of polls’, which collates all available polling data. This would translate into a comfortable double-digit majority if borne out ...
Whatever the result of the 2024 general election, it is certain there will be a large turnover of MPs. Over 130 MPs have announced they are standing down, and current polling suggests that many more seats could change hands. MPs are key constitutional actors in the UK’s democratic system,...
MRP is a method that is increasingly used by polling firms in other countries to leverage small samples, most notably by YouGov which used it to forecast results of the UK Brexit Referendum and recent UK general elections. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national po...
While Kennedy is not considered a threat to win the presidency, an independent campaign couldsignificantly impact the election’s outcome. Early polling has shown that Kennedy could draw more votes from Trump supporters than Biden supporters, tipping the scales toward the president. ...
general election with a majority of more than 20,000, it is, like other rural constituencies in the south of England, a key battleground for the two rivals,Liz Truss, foreign secretary, and Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, fighting to replace Boris Johnson as the UK’s next prime ...