New businesses are popping up at the fastest pace on record. The rate at which workers quit their jobs -- a proxy for confidence in the labor market -- matches the highest going back at least to 2000. American household debt-service burdens, as a share of after-tax income, are near th...
not recovery. When the economy is growing at unsustainable rates, as it was in late 1999, it makes sense to adjust valuations for more normal conditions, if the market has not
right scale). From current valuations, which now rival the most extreme levels in U.S. history, we estimate likely S&P 500 nominal total returns averaging less than 1% annually over the coming 12-year horizon.