Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice-free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find th
D. Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: comparing statistical and climate model projections. J. Econom. 231, 520–534 (2022). Article MathSciNet Google Scholar Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. ...
Back story: ice-out.(IN THE NEWS)(predictions for an ice free Arctic)(Brief article)Witze, Alexandra
Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using det
全球变暖早已成为不争的事实,并且有加剧的趋势。那么这会对北极地区造成什么样的影响呢?A nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer ma
Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice on regional spatial scales are a pressing need for a broad group of stakeholders, however, most forecast skill assessments to date have focused on pan-Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE). In this work, we present a direct comparison of potential and operational ...
Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions using score-driven threshold climate models Climate change impacts on the ocean.Forecasting the year the Arctic Sea ice volume will disappear.Dating the year for the Antarctic Sea ice volume disappea... S Blazsek,A Escribano,E Kristof - ...
The Hudson Bay is historically one of the few places in the Arctic where polar bears have routinely come ashore when all of the sea ice has melted, Geoff York, senior director of research and policy of Polar Bears International and co-author of the paper, told ABC Ne...
The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, ba
The forecast skill, relative to climatology, for predictions of the observed September ice extent for the pan-arctic region is 0.77 for six months lead (from March) and 0.75 for 11 months lead (from October). The ice concentration is the most important variable for the first two months and...