On Tuesday, 538 released its2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, onwhich party Americans want to control Congress) with a bunch of other quantitative and qualitative data to figure out which candidates are ...
In the end, the year wasn't as bad as expected for Democrats and all three seats were held by 4-6% margins. However, it is something to keep an eye on for 2024 and beyond. To create and share your own forecast, visit the2024 House Interactive Map. ...
2024 House Consensus Forecast MapThe consensus map for the 2024 House Election is derived by aggregating the following forecasts.Sabato's Crystal Ball Cook Political Report Inside Elections Split Ticket Elections DailyTo arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each ...
Find out how all this works in our methodology. Lite What Election Day looks like based on polls alone Classic What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more Deluxe What Election Day looks like when we add experts’ ratings to the Classic forecast +...
See all New Jersey House polls Lite What Election Day looks like based on polls alone Classic What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more Deluxe What Election Day looks like when we add experts’ ratings to the Classic forecast +Comments...
Given those narrow margins and the broader competitive political environment,538's new forecast of the Houseunderstandably gives each party just about a 1-in-2 shot of controlling the chamber after the 2024 election — making the race a true coin flip. Much likethe presidential contest, ...
presidential election since 1984. This is not correct. In 2000, Lichtman coded five keys as false for the incumbent Democratic party. Given today’s implementation of the model, this would have implied a forecast that Democratic candidate Al Gore should have won the electoral college, which he ...
2024 Elections Anything can happen but today it seems likely house prices will have fallen, or will be falling, during the 2024 election season. That would be a strong headwind for all incumbent politicians running for reelection just like it was for George H. W. Bush in 1992. ...
The CPR House Race Ratings assess the competitiveness of all 435 House elections in 2024. Competitiveness is determined by several factors, including the district's political makeup, the candidates' strengths and weaknesses, the political environment in the state and nationally, and interviews with ...
Trump essentially even in the district. It made sense, therefore, that the same poll showed Republican Rep. Nick LaLota leading Democratic challenger John Avlon by a mere 3 points. That’s well within the margin of error, even though most forecasters have that race leaning or likely ...