With numerous temperature records already broken, 2023 is almost certain to be the hottest year on record, and 2024 is forecast to be even hotter. Extreme temperatures have brought into sharper focus the effects of rising underlying temperatures on our lives. High temperatures have a profound effec...
But since mid-year 2023, economists have been steadily downgrading their 2024 outlook for China's economy from a mid-year high of 5.0% to a current forecast of 4.5%, as you can see in the chart below. China's official target is 5.0%. Economic pessimism is also reflected in the near-...
Adding to this, we can see divergences in the path of inflation between advanced and emerging economies. While affluent nations are forecast to see inflation edge closer to the 2% target by 2026, emerging economies are projected to have inflation rates reach 4.9%—falling closer to their pre-pa...
Risk: No Recession in 2023 While our baseline forecast calls for a U.S. recession in the second half of the year, we have raised the risk of no recession in 2023. In our view, two main pathways create this possibility. First, there is a chance that the Fed executes a soft landing....
Economic Watch: IMF cuts global growth forecast amid Russia-Ukraine conflict, warns of inflation risk-
Global burden of disease of breast cancer attributable to risk factors GBD of BC attributable to risk factors in 1990 and 2019. BC: breast cancer; GBD: global burden of disease; SDI, socio-demographic index. Full size image Factors influencing the estimated annual percentage change in the global...
In its latest Global Economic Prospects released in early June, the World Bank Group projected that global growth is expected to slump to 2.9 percent in 2022 and hover around that pace over 2023-2024, warning of stagflation risk. Compounding the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine...
In China, the Bank is maintaining its 2024 growth forecast at 4.8%, slightly above market consensus. It expects the government to set a growth target of around 5% for 2024, the same as 2023, in an attempt to narrow the negative output gap and prevent deflation expectations from becoming ent...
Weakening global trade, high borrowing costs, elevated public debt, persistently low investment, and mounting geopolitical tensions put global growth at risk, says the report. Growth in many developed economies, especially the United States, is projected to decelerate in 2024 given high interest rates...
Our global growth forecast is 0.2% higher this year and is unchanged over 2024-2026. The main revisions were in the big emerging markets: China and India. We have nudged Spain, France, and the U.K. higher, and Italy lower with all of these moves less than 30 bps, mainly due to...