Geometric Average Return is the average rate of return on an investment which is held for multiple periods such that any income is compounded. In other words, the geometric average return incorporate the compounding nature of an investment. ...
If these are rates of return, then the individual inner sums can never be less than 0 (you can't lose more than all your money). Edit: To return a result in the format as the input data, {=GEOMEAN(1+A1:A5) - 1} if 0.1 means 10% {=100 * (GEOMEAN(1+A1:A5/100) - 1)} ...
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The expected (forecasted—hence the superscript f) price at future time T is a function of the initial (possibly last-observed) price and the forecasted rate of return rf. The forecasted rate of log return is normally distributed and is a function of the model in Equation 7.2.1 as follows...
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of the latter three years could be predicted by applying the first seven years of data to the GBM model. The results showed that the GBM model could well predict the upper and lower bounds of the actual carbon price. Based on the acceptable predictability of the GBM model, simulations were...