had the election occurred on 10thDecember 2019, the seats won by each party would have had a 95% chance of falling within these intervals. Please note that seat tally isprobability based; it does not exactly correspond with the total number of seats a party is “leading...
It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the...
Labour had been hoping to win the seat, with a victory there a huge prize for the party and a sign of progress. The Conservatives managed to keep control ofHarlowin Essex by a single seat, bucking predictions it would swing to Labour. Sir Keir Starmer had visited ...
The Conservatives, conversely, gained a number of seats from the Liberal Democrats and held off a threat from UKIP, which will most likely wind up with just one seat. Our pre-election forecast, put together in conjunction with electionforecast.co.uk, did project a narrow Conservative plurality...
LONDON, July 8 (Xinhua) -- Boris Johnson, front runner in the race to be Britain's next prime minister, would win a 40-seat majority in a general election if he wins the keys to 10 Downing Street, a new poll revealed Monday night. ...
Martha McSally can keep John McCain’s Senate seat until at least the 2020 general election, a federal judge ruled late Thursday.
Read the full-text online article and more details about "GENERAL ELECTION 2005: Constituency Profile; SOUTHPORT Lib-Dem Seat MP John Pugh Defending a Majority of 3,007 2001: Electorate 70,259 J Pugh (Lib-Dem) 18,011 (43.8% of Vote L Jones (Con) 15,004 (
research outcomes or election predictions, we have compared our results with the actual Lok Sabha election resultsFootnote1. From the comparative analysis, we have found that our results align with the actual outcomes with an absolute error of 0.12%....
This paper argues that the main predictions of this theory are not substantiated by the UK case. This paper is specifically concerned with the perceived breakthrough for the Conservative party among ethnic minority voters in the UK 2015 general election. This has been understood as an important ...
This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. We argue that information from betting markets is highly disaggregated (of...