美联储货币政策转向(Fed pivot)是2024年全球宏观的一条主线。2023年7月“最后一次”加息以来,美联储已经连续四次暂停加息。2023年底以来,市场开始全面交易美联储降息,隔夜利率的波动性有所提升。这是货币市场流动性“结构性短缺”信号,意味着货币市场的流动性已不再处于“超级过剩”的状态。 本报告的主题是:美联...
Fed Major Pivot,继续看多风险资产 FOMC今天的dot plot中位数从2024预计2次减息增加到3次减息。"in determining the extent of 'any' additional policy firming..." 增加了"any",笔者认为这是Fed真正意义上的宣告胜利,从收紧通胀变更为关注经济增长。 近期的数据譬如NFP,如果除去UAW重新hire的因素,实际上并没有...
You’re among my favorite folks who try so hard to twist and turn everything he says into something pivot-ish or dovish. It really looks silly by now. Rate hike after rate hike, it’s the same thing. Now we’re getting to 5%-ish and you’re...
The answer is zero. The largest outliers were the 1984 pivot, the first few months of the 1980 pivot, and the roller coaster that followed the 1981 pivot, which saw Treasury yields spike initially, but eventually decline by over 2% two years later. All three of these outliers started at a...
“The pivot is complete in terms of them worrying about more persistent and problematic inflation,’‘ said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “It is a late realisation but they are there, which is important.” With the stimulus consisting of monthly government bond purchases now...
The Fed Holds Steady with a Dovish Pivot December 15, 2023 Kathy JonesLiz Ann Sonders Kathy Jones discusses the Fed's latest decision and interviews former Fed economist Dr. Julia Coronado. Transcript Open new window After you listen Get up-to-the-minute market data and analysis from Schwab...
The Federal Reserve's pivot to undo its rate-hiking cycle is generally thought to stimulate the economy, but David Kelly believes that it could inadvertently hamper consumer borrowing. "We waited a whole year for the Fed to pivot and finally as a Christmas present they gave us a pivot," JP...
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:APPL) is expected to pivot its focus from the iPhone to wearable technology, including the Vision Pro mixed reality headset, in 2024. This strategic shift is accompanied by significant updates to the AirPods and Apple Watch, aiming to revive consumer interest ...
Dollar Slumps and Gold Surges on Dovish Fed Pivot Crude Prices Sharply Higher on Dollar Weakness and Economic Optimism here Philanthropy LA Fires Cash Payments PASADENA, Calif. (AP) — As Angelenos reel from the devastating wildfires thatdestroyed thousands of homes and businesses and killed at leas...
12月FOMC前,市场处在over easy的金融环境中,fed pivot意味着市场可以更多计价长端利率上涨里“经济增长”的部分。 12月FOMC后,金融条件收紧,不再有跳过利率路径定价终点利率的条件,利率压力回归。 针对后市,美元指数可以做个先行指标:美元指数涨不停,紧缩交易就没有结束。