美联储货币政策转向(Fed pivot)是2024年全球宏观的一条主线。2023年7月“最后一次”加息以来,美联储已经连续四次暂停加息。2023年底以来,市场开始全面交易美联储降息,隔夜利率的波动性有所提升。这是货币市场流动性“结构性短缺”信号,意味着货币市场的流动性已不再处于“超级过剩”的状态。 本报告的主题是:美联...
Fed Pivot Watch: 5 January 2023 The Federal Reserve appears to be approaching the end of its rate-hiking policy, based on estimates from the bond market and economic conditions. But there’s a wild card that could derail the forecast: inflation stays elevated for longer than currently expected...
1. Most tech executives still say that they would be expanding their operations and burning more cash in 2023. Clearly these guys were not in charge in 2007 or 2000 and have no experience of a real tightening. Or they are still hoping for instant p...
The enthusiasm of investors about a likely Federal Reserve “pivot” to interest rate cuts seems a lot like that baby aspirin adventure. It’s tempting to treat the stuff as if it’s candy, but a Fed pivot is usually a signal that all is not well, and even then, the effect of the ...
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:APPL) is expected to pivot its focus from the iPhone to wearable technology, including the Vision Pro mixed reality headset, in 2024. This strategic shift is accompanied by significant updates to the AirPods and Apple Watch, aiming to revive consumer interest ...
Powell 并未正面回答这个记者“鸽派转向 (Pivot)”的问题,反而回答要“增加失业率”,这意味着在本次失业率走升的周期中,Fed 不会出手挽救劳动力市场,因为如此才能确保劳动力市场进一步趋于平衡。 当然,Powell 认为在失业率走升的状况里,美国经济还是有机会能达成软着陆 (Soft landing),但央行们总是这样说的。
Fed Major Pivot,继续看多风险资产 FOMC今天的dot plot中位数从2024预计2次减息增加到3次减息。"in determining the extent of 'any' additional policy firming..." 增加了"any",笔者认为这是Fed真正意义上的宣告胜利,从收紧通胀变更为关注经济增长。
The Fed Holds Steady with a Dovish Pivot December 15, 2023 Kathy JonesLiz Ann Sonders Kathy Jones discusses the Fed's latest decision and interviews former Fed economist Dr. Julia Coronado. Transcript Open new window After you listen Get up-to-the-minute market data and analysis from Schwab...
Tue, Feb 14th 2023 watch now watch now VIDEO04:51 Halftime Report Inflation on a forward-looking basis is low, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Fri, Jan 13th 2023 watch now watch now VIDEO04:01 Closing Bell Paul McCulley, fmr. PIMCO chief economist, expects the Fed to pivot in the second...
"We waited a whole year for the Fed to pivot and finally as a Christmas present they gave us a pivot," JPMorgan's chief global strategist told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Wednesday. "I am a little worried that the most dangerous time for the economy is when a tight Fed begins to ease...