换句话说,(充足)准备金供给将等于存款机构的准备金需求,加上允许准备金市场波动的缓冲[10]。”里士满(Richmond)联储2023年的一篇报告总结到:“充足”意味着不产生任何显著的便利性收益(convenience yield)——在这种情况下,大多数银行间交易的利率将非常接近准备金利率(通常是相等的) [11]。
Even though theFed may be about to cut the target for itsbenchmarkshort-term rate, thefederal funds rate,1 it isn’t necessarily the case that long-term rateswill fall by much, if at all. In past cycles, the yield curve has steepened when the Fed has eased policy— sometimes with l...
Kiuchi added that the aggressive rate hikes put banks like SVB to trouble and pushed the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion in over four decades, with two-year note yields exceeding 10-year yields, thus making the business model of SVB hard to sustain. The SVB's collapse...
Kiuchi added that the aggressive rate hikes put banks like SVB to trouble and pushed the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion in over four decades, with two-year note yields exceeding 10-year yields, thus making the business model of SVB hard to sustain. ...
difficulties in refinancing and rollovers. Some sectors will face greater challenges in terms of growth and business model in the long term, such as commercial real estate, telecommunications, media, retail, and others. The gap between the strong and the weak in the economy is likely to widen...
So the yield curve is steepening, but most banks have yet to see much benefit from this. What the banks really want is a "parallel" rise in rates, which can only happen when the federal funds rate is raised. Most large banks include interest rate sensitivity analyses in their quarterly...
On the election results: “It’s possible that any administration’s policies or policies put in place by Congress could have economic effects over time that would matter for our pursuit of our dual mandate goals,” Powell said. He later added that there’s nothing to model right now because...
Since then, the Fed has been back to its policy making based on what some model builders derisively call a "kitchen sink" of judgmental and structural model forecasting. Investment thoughts The Fed is currently maintaining its monetary base 2.9 percent above its year-earlier level because it app...
Fed 或許認為引起一點點的經濟衰退沒關係,可以拔除通脹黏性後,再來挽救經濟即可,但對於 Street 來說,如果美國經濟跌入經濟衰退,那麼目前的 EPS 下修和 de-rate 潮,顯然還有可能持續發生,那麼這裡就形成 model 上獲利下修、評級再次 downgrade 的不確定性。 另外一個我不太習慣用,但蠻多 Street 的意見是,如果...
► Results show that policy actions have a "slope" effect in the yield curve. ► The Fed's response to Treasuries is stronger for the short and intermediate rates and less aggressive for long-yields. ► All estimated parameters are significant and robust to various model specifications....