primarily reflecting incoming data, along with the projection of a less tight economy. Both total and core PCE price inflation were expected to decline further as supply and demand in labor and product markets continued to move into better balance; by 2026, total and core inflation...
The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for real activity were skewed to the downside. In addition to Russia’s war in Ukraine, weakening activity abroad, and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, the possibility that a persistent reduction in inflation coul...
But at a minimum, efforts to reform the Intelligence Community have to avoid the Athena complex: the tendency for reformers to overengineer their change proposals as if they had perfect vision on which new ideas will work best in the future. (Like the Goddess of Wisdom Athena who emerged ful...
The staff continued to view the uncertainty around the baseline projection as close to the average over the past 20 years. Risks to the inflation forecast were still seen as tilted to the upside, albeit to a smaller degree than at the time of the previous meeting. The risks a...
The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the April–May meeting was similar to the March projection. The economy was expected to maintain its high rate of resource utilization over the next few years, with projected output growth roughly similar to the staff’s estimate of ...