Historical chart of mortgage rates Here’s a look at the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S., as presented by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Average mortgage rates hit an all-time low of 2.65% in January 2021 while the federal government trie...
and the level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected," said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global. "There were no hints of dovishness to indicate the Fed may be poised to pause."
According to the FRED chart below, the US debt to GDP ratio in 1982 was around 35%. Today it is more than three and a half times higher, at 125%. This severely limits how much and how quickly the Fed can raise interest rates, due to the amount of interest that the federal governmen...
Figure: 5 Interest Rates Across Maturities The yield curve inversion between 10 and 2-year notes reached -83bps on Feb 14th, matching the low seen back on December 7th. Figure: 6 Tracking Yield Curve Inversion The chart below shows how the yield curve has moved up over the last month. Th...
(of say 5% a year) the Fed would provide stimulus, regardless of whether the shortfall was due to lower output or lower inflation. This would make the promise of keeping interest rates low for longer more credible. Tolerating higher inflation, occasionally and within limits, would be baked ...
Loading chart... — Fred Imbert Wed, Sep 21 20222:37 PM EDT Aggressiveness Fed is signaling is a surprise, could risk recession, BofA says The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point Wednesday, its third consecutive hike of that size, to cool down high inflation. ...
Using a simple model that compares the history of the Fed funds rate to unemployment and consumer inflation also suggests that the current level of interest rates is sufficiently restrictive relative to the macro conditions. In the chart below, the current level of Fed funds is close to an esti...
Figure: 4 Interest Rates Across Maturities After a very brief inversion, the 2-10 year spread has widened quite rapidly. Figure: 5 Tracking Yield Curve Inversion The chart below shows the entire yield curve compared to one year ago. The flattening can be seen in the red line on top. It ...
Although the Fed has stopped expanding the balance sheet, its actions in 2022 can be seen. The first chart below shows the amount of debt issued by the Treasury in the last 4 calendar years. So far, debt issuance in 2022 has been relatively mild compared to recent history with “only” ...
Or even, “How high would interest rates have needed to go to combat this round of inflation if the Fed wasn’t doing QT?” The problem the Fed is having in combatting inflation isn’t so much with QT as with a Congress and White House that are s...