According to the FRED chart below, the US debt to GDP ratio in 1982 was around 35%. Today it is more than three and a half times higher, at 125%. This severely limits how much and how quickly the Fed can raise interest rates, due to the amount of interest that the federal governmen...
Figure: 4 Interest Rates Across Maturities After a very brief inversion, the 2-10 year spread has widened quite rapidly. Figure: 5 Tracking Yield Curve Inversion The chart below shows the entire yield curve compared to one year ago. The flattening can be seen in the red line on top. It ...
You can certainly argue the Fed’s done lots of “other stuff”, such a bail out the bond market and facilitate the provision of credit. But “other stuff” is not monetary policy. If you look strictly at monetary policy as usually defined (interest rates and the money supply) the Fed ...
Although the Fed has stopped expanding the balance sheet, its actions in 2022 can be seen. The first chart below shows the amount of debt issued by the Treasury in the last 4 calendar years. So far, debt issuance in 2022 has been relatively mild compared to recent history with “only” ...
The chart analyst said a short-term counter-trend gauge flashed a sell signal Tuesday that suggested several weeks of retracement ahead. "We haven't seen a sell signal of that nature since December of '21. It's not a long term signal. It just happens to be the first one that we've ...
Using a simple model that compares the history of the Fed funds rate to unemployment and consumer inflation also suggests that the current level of interest rates is sufficiently restrictive relative to the macro conditions. In the chart below, the current level of Fed funds is close to an esti...
Loading chart... — Fred Imbert Wed, Sep 21 20222:37 PM EDT Aggressiveness Fed is signaling is a surprise, could risk recession, BofA says The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point Wednesday, its third consecutive hike of that size, to cool down high inflation. ...
Or even, “How high would interest rates have needed to go to combat this round of inflation if the Fed wasn’t doing QT?” The problem the Fed is having in combatting inflation isn’t so much with QT as with a Congress and White House that are sti...
Commentary Next to Arrows Has Been Added by Wall Street On Parade. By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 21, 2024 ~ According to its own FRED data, the
2.) Monetary policy is exceptionally accommodative even if they raise interest rates. 3.) Failure to raise rates invites asset bubbles. On point three, refer toNew York Federal Reserve President William Dudley: Quickly, let me give two examples that illustrate how variable this linkage can be...