Overall, the IFED strategy has produced significant alpha across time regardless of the level of interest rates. The graph below illustrates the relationship between the interest rate level (as proxied by the 5-year T-bond rate) and the performance of the IFED strategy [as proxied by the ...
Median FOMC fed funds rate forecast and price as of March 20 ofDecember fed funds futures contractfor indicated year. Updates a similar graph byTim Duy. It’s also worth noting that the median FOMC “longer run” interest rate prediction came out at 3.75% from both the December and the Ma...
If you look at simple monetary base graphs, the exponential trend hides the interesting structure. But, in this YoY/percentage change graph you can see how the "seignorage rate" oscillates around a flat trend, with periods of expanding private credit translating to a lower seignorage rate that ...
It is noteworthy that since each agent in the VDN only has access to its own local observation instead of the full observed environment, the policy has to incorporate past agent observations from history [33]. Thus, the historical values of probing latencies 𝑯𝑝𝑡,𝑛=[𝐻𝑝𝑡−...
In the chart below, we can see the moves in the U.S. dollar over the same period as the rate hikes in the earlier graph. In the mid-1990s, when the fed hiked rates, the dollar rose as measured by the dollar index, which measures the exchange rates of a basket of currencies. ...
Graph 6: US nominal wages Source: FRED. The Fed’s Monetary Stance Is Too Lax With prospects of stagflation materializing, the Fed’s current scenario of monetary tightening is obviously too dovish. History shows that the US Great Inflation of the 1970s could only be ended byhiking interest ...
Back when the US had no central bank the currency was stable and the country was in the most prosperous period in its history. Since the FED the currency has been a disaster, unemployment has been out of control, and the waste (that we know about) has been criminal. No CB is better ...
“However the M0 to unemployment correlation has the wrong sign, and is even stronger than the wrong correlation for the 1930s at +0.51 (see Figure 4). The biggest boost to Base Money in recorded history did little to avert the collapse into the Great Recession, and repeated boosts are do...
between the Fed’s total assets and its holding of conventional Treasury securities. Thus for purposes of the discussion below I propose to measure the overall magnitude of targeted liquidity actions by the sum at any given date of everything other than the light blue area in the graph above....
Silicon Valley Bank Run - How the FED killed our BANK - The complete story behind the second-largest bank failure in United States history!