PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Disclosures related to institutional prime and institutional municipal money market funds: You could lose money by investing in the Fund. Because the share pr
The dot plot contained in the Fed's Survey of Economic Projections shows a long-run Fed Funds Rate of almost 4%-if the Fed achieves its 2% inflation target. That means the long-term real rate would be 2%, about equal to its historical average. Would Lacker revise down his forecast? Lac...
The Federal Reserve kept the funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% for a third consecutive meeting in May 2025, in line with expectations, as officials adopt a wait-and-see approach amid concerns that President Trump’s tariffs could drive up inflation and slow economic growth. Policymakers noted that un...
The Fed is expected to raise rates by three-quarters of a point, and that would take the fed funds rate range to 3.0% to 3.25%. Loading chart... In the futures market, traders upped their bets on the rate level at which the Fed will stop hiking. Ahead of the Fed...
According to the FOMC’s most recently released dot plot (December 16, 2015), the FOMC plans between two and seven rate hikes during 2016 with a median forecast of four.2 The fed funds futures market expects only two hikes (see chart below). Something has to give. Either the Fed’s ...
In terms of market impact, the expected terminal fed funds rate and the speed with which it gets there are therefore highly relevant for the treasury market. The higher the terminal rate and the longer it takes to reach it, the greater will the upward pressure be on US treasur...
These dot plots are notoriously-inaccurate forecasters of future federal-funds-rate levels. The Fed chair himself explicitly warned about that in his mid-June post-FOMC-meeting press conference. Examples are legion. The Fed’s last rate-hike cycle started in mid-December 2015. That day the FOM...
All eyes are on theU.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)today, and withrate hikes widely expectedat some pointin 2022(around June, according to Fed Funds Futures), the question is what it means for risky assets, including emerging markets (EM). Past experience shows thatEM bonds did quite well dur...
TSPL IncomeL 2020L 2030L 2040L 2050G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund Apr 0.67% % 0.92% 0.97% 1% 0.35% 0.39% -0.68% -0.78% 4.16% YTD 1.13% % 0.38% 0.1% -0.18% 1.48% 3.18% -4.93% -9.65% 9% 10yr 4.33% % 7.05% 7.78% 8.38% 2.61% 1.67% 12.3% 8.01% 5.53% View TSP chart...
Every-other FOMC meeting is accompanied by a so-called dot plot, a collation of individual Fed officials’ unofficial forecasts for future federal-funds-rate levels. The latest December 2021 dot plot is where this outlook tripled to six hikes through 2022 and 2023. Back in December 2015 with...