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The real question here is whether the underlying PVIs of the districts have changed or whether 2024 was a one-off event due to marginal voters coming out for Trump. NJ-09, for example, has a Cook PVI of D+8. In 2026, with Trump not on the ballot, will it revert to that and elec...
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IMPORTANT for a second reason. See, SD-32 and HD-26 are both majority-minority. So, if the Democratic candidates performed poorly, or lost, this would be OUR FIRST CLUE that the gains that Donald Trump made with minority voters are real, and that the 2024 election was a realigning ...
Democrat No Prediction Republican Maine 2 1 1 Neb. 2 1 1 1 D.C. 3 Why do 270 votes matter? To win the presidency, candidates have to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes. The Electoral College comprises a total of 538 members, with each state getting a total number of elect...
J.H. in Flint, MI, asks:There are rumors of a challenge to Mike Johnson's (R-LA) speakership. If the House fails to select a Speaker on January 3, and the fight drags on, what effect (if any) would the lack of a speaker have on the certification of the Electoral College results...
(calculus I is typically taken by high school students or in the first semester of college), is so concrete, it's very easy to spot when something is wrong. I have noticed that AI has a better success rate on even-more-basic high school level math (particularly Algebra I), but it's...
That said, Thomas Edsall has an interestingcolumnabout how deep the wound is. It is largely based on a poll from a centrist Democratic think tank, the Progressive Policy Institute. They polled 5,098 working-class (i.e., noncollege) voters in the swing states and another 881 in other sta...
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