Historically, stock market performance in the months leading up to the election has been a fairly accurate predictor of the U.S. election outcome. Since 1984, every time the S&P 500 has generated a positive return from the beginning of August through the end of October in a U.S. presi...
Since past vote choice is such a strong predictor of future vote choice, MRP models in effect have a 2019-2024 vote-transition matrix model at the heart of them. That in turn means MRP models tend to project proportional drops for parties in decline. The MRP modellers need a lot of data...
Sonja Hutson All right. We’re running low on time for this portion. So I want to just wrap up with one last question, which is: Do you think that economic sentiment is a good predictor of the outcome of an election? Peter Spiegel I’m still going to say yes. I’m still going to...
US presidential electionand recentDutch election. In each of the plebiscites, education emerged as the strongest predictor of vote for a populist option, where the less educated chose it more often than those with degrees.
we also do not find clear evidence that a country holding its first election is more likely to host a low-quality election observer. Since holding multi-party elections for the first time is an important predictor of hosting (high-quality) international observers, this finding suggests a clear ...
historically, stock market performance in the months leading up to the election has been a fairly accurate predictor of the u.s. election outcome. since 1984, every time the s&p 500 has generated a positive return from the beginning of august through the end of october in a u.s. ...