An El Niño is one of three possible phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and forms when sea surface temperature anomalies reach 0.5 °C or warmer than normal values. NOAA says their latest measurements recorded the anomaly at 0.8°C above average. It is the first time the...
While each event is different, experts can look at past El Niño summers for clues about what kind of overall conditions we might expect in the warmer months ahead. Between past El Niño seasons and long-term model guidance, current predictions show a mixed bag...
2023 El Nino Odds of Strong El Niño Now Over 95% August 16, 2023 This year's El Niño may drive ocean temperatures to "substantially exceed" those recorded during the last strong event in early 2016, scientists have warned.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) lates...
Super El Nino in 2024 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 75%-80% chance of a strong El Niño event in the Northern Hemisphere from March to May 2024, with a 1 in 3 chance of it being a “super El Niño.” A super El Niño happens when sea sur...
(cellular) July 9, 2009 El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with ...
The prediction skill of three-month running mean NINO3.4 index is summarized in Fig. 3. The MME skill scores show a sharp decrease in the spring then a gradual increase in the winter, consistent with the well-known ‘spring predictability barrier’ for ENSO prediction32. Nevertheless, MME ACCs...
2. These results support the idea that the recent climatological warming in WHWP plays an important role in the WHWP–El Nino connection. Figure 2 Lagged influence of WHWP–SST on the Pacific. Lagged correlation maps of SST (shading; above 90% confidence level is hatched), SLP (contour; ...
The average of SSTAs over the region bounded by 5° N to 5° S, and 170° W to 120° W, is defined as the Nino3.4 index, which is used to describe the amplitude of El Niño according to the definition of NOAA in 2005. If the DMI exceeds 0.5 standard deviations for 3 ...
Example of 2023Hot Spot Predictions and Landfalls ___ NOAA GFS 15-Day Model Computer Model Runs (click graphic to open the GFS model) (click graphic to open the ECMWF model)
Whenever it arrives, El Niño is going to be a chance to learn more about how coral reacts and where pockets of resilience might appear, Houk said. He just wants it to hold off a bit longer. "We hope that the predictions are wrong and then we can buy a few more years for...