We develop a new method to measure economic policy uncertainty and test its dynamic relationship with output, investment, and employment. We find that, since 2008, economic policy uncertainty in the United States has been at a level approximately two tim
We develop a new method to measure economic policy uncertainty and test its dynamic relationship with output, investment, and employment. We find that, since 2008, economic policy uncertainty in the United States has been at a level approximately two tim
Oil Price Uncertainty Index Cable News-based EPU Climate Risk IndexesGeopolitical Risk IndexDownload Data (New Methodology) Annotated GPR IndexWe are pleased to host the Geopolitical Risk Index developed by Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello at the Federal Reserve Board.Dario...
The third component of our policy-related uncertainty index draws on the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Here, we utilize the dispersion between individual forecasters' predictions about future levels of the Consumer Price Index, Federal Expenditures, and State...
On the one hand, the literature suggests that it is optimal for firms facing uncertainty to defer investment because reversing investment is costly and uncertainty increases the value of the option to wait (Bernanke, 1983 and McDonald and Siegel, 1986). On the Data To measure innovation ...
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Recent studies have examined the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate. We contribute to this literature by considering the effect of minor positive and major positive changes as well as minor negative and major negative changes in the economic policy uncertainties on the ex...
In this paper, we study the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment. US data were analysed based on linear and non-linear Granger causality analysis. We reveal the obvious impact that economic policy uncertainty has on the investor sentiment, which can be explained by...
Interest Income ActivitiesPanel Data.In this paper, we provide the first cross-country empirical evidence on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and banks' interest income acBoungou, WhelsyMawusi, CharlesSocial Science Electronic Publishing...
Policy (P): regulation, deficit, "white house", legislation, congress, "federal reserve" Uncertainty (U): uncertainty, uncertain These are our U.S. term sets, which we translate into German and French with the assistance of native speakers. The P term set differs for the European countries...