The results from the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and reliability diagrams indicate that the ECMWF S2S model has skill in predicting maximum temperature up to week 3 ahead, particularly over the central and eastern parts of South Africa. The ROC scores indicate that the model has ...
However, irrespective of the ENSO phases, ECMWF-S2S model is capable of adequately and reliably predicting the latitudinal positions of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD), mean sea level pressure component of the thermal lows and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific and ...
主要结论如下:(1)虽然两个S2S模式都能预测出中国夏季平均降水及降水标准差的空间分布,但仍然存在不同程度的偏差,且ECMWF模式的预报明显优于CMA模式.ECMWF模式的预测相对于观测值在南方地区(southern China,SC)的北侧略高而南侧略低,而CMA模式则明显低估了整个SC地区两者的幅度.ECMWF模式和CMA模式的多成员集合平均分别...
ZhouY,YangB,ChenHS,etal,2019.EffectsoftheMadden-Julianoscillationon2-mairtemperaturepredictionoverChinaduringbo-realwinterintheS2Sdatabase[J].ClimateDynamics,52:6671-6689.DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4538-z. 蔡宏珂,郑嘉雯,毛雅琴,等,2022.六个气候系统模式对西南地区2m温度的预报检验分析[...
Two approaches were followed to build categorical classification correction models: (1) using ML and (2) using a committee model. The aim of both was to correct the categorical classifications (above normal, near normal and below normal) of the ECMWF S2S precipitation forecast. ...
While much of the scientific literature uses data fromin‐situ, satellite, and/or reanalysis datasets, this study focuses on reforecast fields from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasting's (ECMWF) S2S dataset. Evaluation of the model's predictive skill in representing OERWs and...
Model forecasted principal components (PCs) are quantitatively compared with observed PCs using bivariate correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE). We find that MJO could be predicted up to around 22days (around 31days) for IITM ERP system (ECMWF S2S dataset) as measured by ...
Model forecasted principal components (PCs) are quantitatively compared with observed PCs using bivariate correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE). We find that MJO could be predicted up to around 22 days (around 31 days) for IITM ERP system (ECMWF S2S dataset) as measured by ...
Skill improvement of the yearly updated reforecasts in ECMWF S2S prediction from 2016 to 2022 Hazardous weather events are often accompanied by subseasonal processes, but the forecast skills of subseasonal prediction are still limited. To assess the... Y Peng,X Liu,XZY Su - 《Atmospheric & Ocean...
SEASONSThe rainy season in South China is divided into two phases, the pre- and postrainy seasons, according to the seasonal progression of the East Asian summer monsoon. The precipitation prediction skills for the two rainy seasons are investigated using subseasonal-t...