The Dutch book argument for Reflection is very closely related to the one for Conditionalization. We have The Reflection Dutch Book Theorem If p(H|pt(H) = x)≠ x for some H and x, there is a Dutch strategy for p (no matter what r). At first this result appears to contradict the...
The Consistency Condition and the Dutch Book Argument主观概率理论一致性条件荷兰赌论证主观主义概率论者把概率看成私人的事情.概率即部分信念,而部分信念可以通过赌商来测定,概率的主观求值只受一致性条件约束,概率律就是一致性律.通过荷兰赌可以论证一个赌商集合不可能导致荷兰赌,当且仅当,这个赌商集合满足概率...
This survey offers critical assessments of several kinds of Dutch Book arguments. I begin with the classic argument for obedience to the probability calculus, emphasizing both its literal interpretation in terms of monetary losses at the hands of a cunning bettor, and the interpretation that this ...
The first few sections of this article focus on works that consider the premises and structure of the basic Dutch Book argument, its interpretation, and its connection with decision theory. The remaining sections are devoted to extensions of the basic Dutch Book argument for the probability axioms...
Finally, there is a dutch-book argument for countable additivity. Let be a finite set with card (() > 1. A bookie posts odds λ A on A, for every proper A ; odds are positive and finite. If you bet b A on A, and A occurs, then you win b A /λ A ; if A does not ...
The argument consists in offering a Dutch Book in the style of Hitchcock (2004). Although this analysis will appear at first to support the "thirdist" conclu- sion, I will argue in section 2 for a closer examination of the relationship between actions and beliefs. In particular, I will ...
Ein Problem mit diachronen Dutch-Book-Argumenten MARTIN RECHENAUER Wer etwas glaubt, kann sich in unterschiedlichem Maße seiner Sache sicher sein. Es gibt Grade der Intensität des Überzeugt-Seins. Philosophen und Statistiker nehmen dieses offenkundige Faktum zum Anlaß, Überzeugung...
IntroductionOur aim here is to sketch a relatively simple and self-contained argument toshow that dutch book can be made against certain ‘objective’ priors, namely, in-variantmeasuresthathaveinfinitemassandareusedas‘priors’informalBayesiancalculations. Such improper priors are often said to be ‘...
该系列赌局称为“荷兰赌”(Dutch Book)。按照经典表述,所谓荷兰赌论证就是:如果当事人的不确定信念度赋值不满足概率论 … philosophy.sysu.edu.cn|基于2个网页 2. 荷兰赌注簿 英国赌马场称这种不一致现象为荷兰赌注簿(Dutch Book),不过到底是什麽原因笔者并不了解。当然,在比赛中如果对手擅 … ...
This claim is undermined by Lewis' triviality results, which purport to show that apart from trivial cases, PCCP is not true. In the present article we show that the only rational, "Dutch Book-resistant" extension of the agent's beliefs concerning non-conditional sentences A and C to the ...