Inflation continues to impact consumers and policymakers in negative ways. Hedging through broad commodities has proven to buffer portfolio returns, with the S&P GSCI up 5.38% this year. Going into the year, expectations of Fed rate cuts and continued declines in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ...
Currently there are over 50bps of cuts expected over the three RBNZ meetings by year-end. We pointed out yesterday that some desks have noted these expectations seem to be relatively stretched at this point, potentially setting a high bar for tomorrow’s data to confirm the market’s bias. ...
"The market is thinking 'what if that CPI report comes in strong?' and then some of the Fed easing expectations could be priced out which would be dollar supportive," said Jane Foley head of FX strategy at Rabobank. She said the dollar was also being affected by Reuters'...
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 7.1 basis points to 3.9439%, most of which came after the report. With the two-year unable hold back above 4% this week, Rupert said: "Shorts are throwing in the towel again, so the...
Inflation expectations are rising — but below recent peaks — when using a simple breakeven calculation of Treasury and TIPS five year yields. Figure 2:Five year inflation breakeven calculated as five year Treasury yield minus five year TIPS yield (blue), five year breakeven adjusted by inflation...
The June CPI report continued a trend of an aggressive reversal of Q1’s surprise strength, ramping up expectations that the July FOMC is used as a launching pad for a September cut (the latter now essentially fully priced).Most recently, core CPI was 0.
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Financial conditions have tightened substantially since the BoE’s May meeting, thanks to the large rise in interest rate expectations, which will do some of the MPCs work for it. Overall, we still think a peak of 5% is more likely than one of 6%. But the 6% priced in by fin...
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October following a decline of 0.2% in September. This is in line with consensus expectations. Year over year, the CPI-U was up 0.2% at the end of October, which is well below the Fed’s ...
Oracle (ORCL) shares surged Wednesday to record highs after theenterprise software giant announcedcloud infrastructure deals with Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) and Chat GPT owner Open AI that outweighedquarterly results that fell shortof Wall Street expectations. ...