There is no contention that the strength of evidence is measured by the ratio of the conditional probabilities of that evidence under the different hypotheses – how likely are we to encounter such evidence assuming a certain hypothesis is true (Known as the Bayes factor or likelihood ratio). ...
Finally, the most important flaw in Manchin’s reasoning is that it propagates a false choice about climate action: Either spend money on climate, or do nothing and save money. In reality, maintaining the status quo—in other words, plowing headlong into climate catastrophe—is by far the c...