The probability of an attacker catching up from a given deficit is analogous to a Gambler's Ruin problem. Suppose a gambler with unlimited credit starts at a deficit and plays potentially an infinite number of trials to try to reach breakeven. We can calculate the probability he ever reaches ...
In this way, the resulting deficit (−19 mm) between P (237 mm) and ETa (256 mm) was eliminated. In the case of calculated values, the deficit was higher (−32 mm) due to higher ETa (269 mm) and was eliminated by inflow (37 mm) to a value of BF = 55 mm. At the end ...