A Bayesian age‐period‐cohort (BAPC) model predicted diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality from 2020 to 2030. Results: In China, type 1 diabetes deaths declined from 6,005 to 4,504 cases (AAPC 2.827), while type 2 diabetes deaths rose from 64,084 to 168,388 cases (...
The BAPC model is based on the age-period-cohort [13] (APC) model, which assumes an association between the incidence or mortality rates and age structure and population size. In essence, the APC model can be understood as a logarithmic linear Poisson model. λμαβγnij=log(λij)=...
age-standardized DALY rate using SDI. Finally, age-standardized DALY rates were calculated by sex to measure the direction of temporal trends of glaucoma and a Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) analysis in R using the BAPC and INLA packages was performed. All data analyses were conducted ...
2.3.3. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis The prediction analysis was conducted with the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model [27]. Age-specific CRC attributable to high PM intake of lung cancer in China from 2020 to 2030 was predicted using the BAPC model with integrated nested Laplace ...