Model We employed a bayesian age-period-cohort [10] (BAPC) model with nested Laplace approximation to predict the future burden pattern of IBD. This model has been shown to have better accuracy compared to other forecasting models in previous studies [10,11,12]. The BAPC model is based on...
A Bayesian age‐period‐cohort (BAPC) model predicted diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality from 2020 to 2030. Results: In China, type 1 diabetes deaths declined from 6,005 to 4,504 cases (AAPC 2.827), while type 2 diabetes deaths rose from 64,084 to 168,388 cases (...
Figure 4. Trends in age-standardized DALY rates from 2019 to 2030 in males (A) and females (B) predicted by Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) models. DALY: disability-adjusted life-year. 4. Discussion Glaucoma, as one of the irreversible blinding eye diseases in the world, has caused...