In essence, a person misinterprets an outcome because they get tripped up by specific details and overlook the overall frequency of occurrence. People tend to make predictions using similarity rather than statistical likelihoods. Hence, this bias is also known as base rate neglect. But why does ...
Examples of such "errors" include overconfidence bias, conjunction fallacy, and base-rate neglect. Researchers have relied on a very nar... Gigerenzer,Gerd - 《European Review of Social Psychology》 被引量: 1078发表: 1991年 The inverse fallacy: an account of deviations from Bayes's theorem ...
Base Rate Fallacy is our tendency to give more weight to the event-specific information than we should, and sometimes even ignore base rates entirely.
Base-rate neglect was observed in conditions similar to those in which it was initially reported (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973). We found that, when the source of the case-specific information was 80% accurate, 57% of the participants’ Discussion This experiment investigated differences in the ...
Not a psychology but the study of groups within groups would have some merit to this. if you have 50 groups(character/ethic/lifestyle,etc), and one of the groups is likely to be the type for a terrorist then a 80% susses rate, could just be based on the selected persons which were...