of an 'Unobserved Components' decomposition and show that it not only provides useful information on underlying inflation in Australia, but also provides support for the decision, in 1998, of the Reserve Bank of Australia to switch the target from an underlying series to the headline rate itself...
Markets have heavily wagered on a steady outcome as RBA Governor Michele Bullock has repeatedly said that underlying inflation is still too high for rate cuts in the near-term, including just two weeks ago. "Recent data on inflation and economic conditions are still consistent with these forecast...
During the first nine months of the year GDP has only risen 2.2 percent, while Australia's underlying inflation, according to the ABS Consumer Price Index, has managed an annual lift to September of just 1.75 percent. For this reason, as well as stagnant wage growth and soaring levels of h...
"It looks as though interest rates will remain on hold at 1.5 percent for the rest of this year as financial stability concerns continue to force the RBA to put up with underlying inflation remaining below the 2 to 3 percent target range and an unemployment rate of close to 6 percent." I...
Markets had wagered heavily on a steady outcome given underlying inflation remained sticky and the labor market held up surprisingly well. The RBA has kept rates steady since November, judging that the cash rate of 4.35% - up from a record-low 0.1% during the pandemic - is restrictive enough...
Markets had wagered heavily on a steady outcome given underlying inflation remained sticky and the labour market held up surprisingly well. Bullock, in her post-meeting press conference, said the board did not "explicitly" consider a rate hike at this meeting. ...
But in late 2019/early 2020 the monthly index suggested inflation was rising sharply when the quarterly index turned out not to. The monthly swings often reflect swings in the volatile prices such as petrol, fruit and vegetables rather than underlying trends. The prices o...
In pursuing the goal of medium-term price stability, the Reserve Bank of Australia has adopted, with agreement from the Treasurer, the objective of keeping underlying inflation between 2 and 3 percent, on average, over the cycle. In pursuit of this objective, the Reserve Bank of Australia ...
Persistently weak growth and slowing inflation suggest market could revise lower estimate of neutral rate. Gilts Overweight Expect wages and service sector inflation to slow; gilts are attractively valued. JGBs Underweight Wages and underlying inflation accelerating while market is pricing in too accommoda...
some central banks engaged in quantitative easing or increasing the supply of money in circulation, which causes a currency’s price to drop. On the other hand, raising interest rates (usually used to combat inflation) will cause a currency’s price to increase as this leads to higher investor...