are more difficult to predict by electoral polls the greater the party-system fragmentation, competitiveness and electoral volatility are, the earlier before Election Day the polls are conducted, the higher the margin of error declared is, and in parliamentary elections compared to presidential ones.do...
We compare ANES to other polls in predictive ability and then offer conclusions regarding the quality of ANES aggregate vote intention as a forecasting tool for American presidential election outcomes. 2. Description of data and variables Our main data are gathered from the ANES (2022), ...
engineers rely on accurate calculations to ensure the stability and safety of the structure. A miscalculation can compromise the integrity of the structure, possibly leading to catastrophic failures.
Overall, national polls in 2016 were somewhat more accurate than in 2012, but statewide polls were less accurate. Patterns across the board suggest polls underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevertheless, these biases were generally statistically ...
Pointing to polls ahead of the 2016 presidential election that showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the lead, Cahaly said there were elements of that election that needed to be factored into polling models to create accurate results. "We lived in a world where everybody knew somebody ...
(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot), Gallup (https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx), Project Implicit (see the Open Science Framework website athttps://osf.io/t4bnj) and the US Census Bureau (https://www.census.gov/data/...
An analysis of the accuracy of "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election. 1994. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of 'Trial Heat' Polls During the 1992 Presidential Election." Public Opinion Quarterly 58:2-20... Lau,Richard,R. - 《Public Opinion Quarterly》 被引量: 65发表: 199...
The authors examine the results of 48 national public opinion polls measuring support for George Bush and Michael Dukakis throughout the 1988 presidential campaign conducted or reported by five major media polling organizations. Polling trends are discussed, and the consistency of estimates across polls...
Presidential electionsMethodsCandidatesSuspicion towards polls in France has come to a maximum after their failure in predicting Le Pen's qualification to the second round of the 2002 presidential election. Despite general satisfaction with polls in 2007, we show that their performance is in fact not...
UNITED States presidential election, 2020PUBLIC opinion pollsTRUMP, Donald, 1946-COVID-19 pandemicUsing the registration-based samples and disposition codes of state-level pre-election telephone polls conducted by the National Election Pool as part of the National Exit Poll in 12 state...