Presidential electionsMethodsCandidatesSuspicion towards polls in France has come to a maximum after their failure in predicting Le Pen's qualification to the second round of the 2002 presidential election. Despite general satisfaction with polls in 2007, we show that their performance is in fact not...
are more difficult to predict by electoral polls the greater the party-system fragmentation, competitiveness and electoral volatility are, the earlier before Election Day the polls are conducted, the higher the margin of error declared is, and in parliamentary elections compared to presidential ones.do...
MINNEAPOLIS— With just over a week to go until the presidential election, most polls saythe race is a tie. But how accurate are the polls? The polls have missed badly before — most infamouslyin 2016when almost every poll hadHillary Clinton beating former President Donald Trump. Pollsters dr...
Pointing to polls ahead of the 2016 presidential election that showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the lead, Cahaly said there were elements of that election that needed to be factored into polling models to create accurate results. "We lived in a world where everybody knew somebody who...
Overall, national polls in 2016 were somewhat more accurate than in 2012, but statewide polls were less accurate. Patterns across the board suggest polls underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevertheless, these biases were generally statistically ...
(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot), Gallup (https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx), Project Implicit (see the Open Science Framework website athttps://osf.io/t4bnj) and the US Census Bureau (https://www.census.gov/data/...
We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance. 展开 ...
1994. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of 'Trial Heat' Polls During the 1992 Presidential Election." Public Opinion Quarterly 58:2-20.Lau, Richard R. 1994. ``An Analysis of the Accuracy of `Trial Heat' Polls During the 1992Presidential Election.'' Public Opinion Quarterly 58 (1): 2-20....
No abstract is available for this item.doi:10.1016/0169-2070(94)90081-7J. Scott ArmstrongElsevierInternational Journal of Forecasting
G. (2014). Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The PollyVote. PS: Political Science & Politics, 47, 427-431.Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J., & Cuzan, A. G. (2014). Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The ...