At this point, we actually have two distinct models of the election outcome: a polls-based prediction and a fundamentals-based prediction. But 538 publishes only one forecast; that means we need to figure out how to combine the two predictions. And how we do that has a lot to do with t...
The first, and most important, fundamental is simply the partisan lean of the district. 538 calculates a district's partisan lean by taking a weighted blend of how much redder or bluer the district voted than the country as a whole in the most recent and second-most recent presidential ...
In the latest presidential election predictions and odds, Donald Trump is the biggest favorite he has been in months as we are just 16 days until the presidential election.
To win the presidential election, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes. The popular vote’s impact culminates in the allocation of 538 electoral votes, primarily determined by the number of congressional representatives each state has. Battleground states hold unpredictable voting patterns, mak...
conceptualize the potential tightness of this year's race. As the tense wait continues, resources like 270toWin'sInteractive Presidential Election Map,PBS' Electoral College Map, andABC's Interactive Electoral Map, have let election watchers make their own predictions and forecasts as the results ...
The Outright Worst Political Predictions of 2024 From the effect of Joe Biden’s debate to the fallout from Donald Trump’s criminal conviction, here’s a look at the very worst in prognostications this year. By Zack Stanton | December 20, 2024 05:00 AM ‘The Black Swan Election’: ...
文章分析了2024年美国总统选举中选民情绪的变化,重点关注特朗普和哈里斯的支持率以及不同群体的投票行为。政治科学教授Brian Gaines指出,尽管特朗普在非白人男性群体中获得了意外支持,但选民忠诚度的变化并未根本性转变。文章还提到穆斯林和阿拉伯选民对民主党的支持显著下降,反映了对拜登政府在加沙冲突中的处理不满。选民的...
The U.S. government funds some of the world's priciest supercomputers, generally beyond private sector budgets, and provides research access to universities and businesses. These supercomputers enable advanced simulations for applications like hurricane predictions, drug discovery and engine testing. Politic...
A person casts their ballot in the Democratic Presidential Primary during early voting at the Berkeley County Board of Voter Registration & Elections facility, Jan. 31, 2024, in Moncks Corner, S.C. On Saturday Republican voters in South Carolina will participate in what could be a nomination-de...
And, as the 2024 presidential election gets closer, many are worried aboutthe effects of disinformation and deepfakesbeing spread on social platforms. Search interest in “deepfake AI” grew rapidly in 2023. At the same time, social media platforms are attempting to protect their interests. ...